로지스틱 회귀분석과 지리 탐색기를 이용한 대구시 녹지 변화의 동인 분석

This study analyzed the forces to drive the change of urban green spaces in Daegu from 1989 to 2009. First, the loss and fragmentation of green spaces in the past 20 years were spatially identified by performing the hot spots analysis for the cell-based spatial metrics quantifying the size and diversity of green spaces. Next, seven drivers such as slope, distance to roads, land price, population density, ratios of residential, commercial, and industrial areas were selected based on the previous studies and the direction of the association between the loss and fragmentation of green spaces and seven drivers was analyzed with the stepwise logistic regression. Finally, the relative importance of the seven drivers and their interactions in the past 20 years were analyzed with the geographical detector. The results show that the loss of green spaces was concentrated on a part of the Anshim housing development district from 1989 to 2009 and green spaces were highly fragmented around the housing development districts such as Seongseo, Anshim, Dalseong-gun and Chilgok. The forces to drive the loss and fragmentation of green spaces in these areas were different at the administrative levels, but the drivers such as slope and ratios of residential and industrial areas were commonly significant. These drivers were positively correlated with largest patch index(LPI) quantifying the loss of green spaces while they were negatively correlated with Shannon’s diversity index(SHDI) measuring the fragmentation of green spaces. In other words, the loss and fragmentation of urban green spaces in Daegu appeared around such regions with lower slope and lower ratios of residential and industrial areas. The relative importance of drivers for LPI was listed as ratio of industrial area, land price, and ratio of commercial area in descending order whereas that of drivers for SHDI was listed as ratio of industrial area, land price, and distance to roads in descending order. Also, the interaction between slope and ratio of residential area had a great impact on LPI and SHDI. The ratio of industrial area was a single driver to most significantly explain the loss and fragmentation of urban green spaces in Daegu in the past 20 years. The interaction between slope and ratio of residential area was greater than the independent influence of a single driver. This study will provide the base data to build a sustainable urban green policy for the city of Daegu in the near future.