제주 서부 중산간지역 대수층 리질리언스 및 스트레스 분석: 기후변화와 극한 기후 이벤트의 영향

Changes in precipitation patterns and extreme climate events (droughts and heavy rainfall) induced by climate change have significant impacts on the groundwater systems in western Jeju Island, altering aquifer resilience and stress conditions. This study quantitatively assesses the effects of climate change and extreme climate events on aquifer dynamics by utilizing groundwater level and precipitation data collected from 2012 to 2021 in western Jeju Island. To analyze the correlation between precipitation events and groundwater levels in the time-frequency domain, cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence were applied. Additionally, a baseflow analysis based on variational mode decomposition was used as a tool for assessing aquifer resilience. The cross wavelet transform analysis revealed that aquifer behavior exhibits short-term (1-6 months), mid-term (6-12 months), and long-term (over 12 months) periodicities, which vary significantly depending on extreme climate events. Furthermore, baseflow analysis confirmed that aquifer stress peaked during the droughts of 2013 and 2017, with a significant decline in resilience observed in some aquifers. Specifically, observation wells at Panpo2, Gumak2, and Sangye3 exhibited short-term sensitivity to precipitation events, whereas wells at Seokwang3 and Sangye1 demonstrated low recovery capacity in response to prolonged precipitation deficits. Conversely, wells at Panpo2 and Gumak1 exhibited relatively high resilience, highlighting the importance of considering regional differences in aquifer management. This study provides empirical evidence for evaluating the multifaceted impacts of extreme climate events on aquifers and offers insights into tailored groundwater management approaches that consider regional characteristics. The findings serve as a valuable foundation for developing policies aimed at ensuring the long-term sustainability of groundwater resources under the influence of climate change.