A new approach for frequency based short-term reliability for a power system

In this work, we provide a completely new approach for a short-term power system reliability that can be utilized for system operation planning. The proposed index incorporates the system frequency as a reliability of the grid and its deviation over a short time period. Although frequency performance is often employed as a quality metric for the past system operation, our model can address the future system condition by forecasting the statistics of the system frequency for a specific operation condition. In our model, demand, renewable source, battery and generators are stochastically incorporated. Using the equilibrium of demand and supply, and the physical constraints of automatic generation control (AGC), a model is developed, from which the system frequency distribution is obtained. From the contrived system frequency, statistical function, referred to herein as Frequency Reliability Distribution Function (FRDF), is proposed from which various criteria could be developed for short-term reliability. The developed FRDF along with the pertaining metrics are utilized for some case studies with IEEE reliability test system.