Analysis of gravity movement and future projections of greenhouse gas emissions in South Korea

This study investigates the shifting patterns of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across 17 administrative regions in South Korea from 2000 to 2020, analyzing their movement and the underlying driving factors. Using the center of gravity method, the GHG emission center shifted northwest toward capital regions mainly due to zone 2 and 3 related to industrial activities and urbanization during the four distinct phases. National trends in GHG emission changes were assessed using the LMDI method, revealing that economic development and population effects were the primary drivers of emission increases, while energy intensity and fossil fuel effects mitigated emissions. Regionally, energy intensity and population effects are the two main driving factors positively and negatively influencing GHG emissions. Cluster analysis identified four distinct groups of regions; urban efficiency (Cluster 1), economic development with low fossil fuel use (Cluster 2), industrial reliance (Cluster 3) and administrative low-emission (Cluster 4). Projection models show varying future emission trajectories by 2030, 567.2, 637.9, and 708.7 million tCO₂eq. in the advanced, moderate, and business-as-usual scenarios, respectively. Still further aggressive emission reduction measures are required to meet 436.6 million tCO₂eq. of 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution target. Investigation of national and regional energy consumption structures would help establish policies for sustainable development among local governments.