Development of environmental load-estimating model for road planning phase: Focus on road earthwork

The construction industry has significant effects on global warming, and efforts are being made continuously to reduce environmental load. However, it is difficult to assess the environmental load at the planning phase of Social Overhead Capital (SOC) because it is impossible to obtain the necessary information for calculating the amount of resources used. In this study, a forecast model based on Case-based Reasoning (CBR) was developed and its reliability was evaluated. The purpose of this model is to estimate environmental load accurately and rapidly through Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) by using only 11 types of information for deduction during the planning phase for the road earthwork section of the SOC. The value of environmental load estimated by the asdeveloped model showed an average error of 19.21%. The reliability is approximately 18%P higher than that of the value estimated based on the basic unit (/m, /m²) that can be used at the planning phase. Thus, the capability to perform environmental load assessment through LCA with better reliability even with information that can be used at the planning phase of road facilities through the as-developed CBR-based environmental load estimation model is demonstrated.