Estimation of flood risk index considering the regional flood characteristics: A case of South Korea

Global warming is increasing the variability of climate change and intensifying hydrologic cycle components including precipitation, infiltration, evapotranspiration, and runoff. These changes increase the chance of more severe and frequent natural conditions, and limit ecosystem function and human activities. Adaptation to climate change requires assessment of the potential disaster risk. The objectives of this study were to estimate the flood risk index (FRI) considering regional flood characteristics at the national level and to prioritize the factors affecting flood risk through principal component analysis. FRI was estimated based on the Delphi survey results from 50 water resources experts in South Korea. The potential risk analysis was conducted for 229 local governments in South Korea. The results showed that natural and social factors were more influential flood risk factors to South Korea than administrative and economic and facility factors. Specifically, natural, social, administrative and economic, and facility factors were, respectively, highest at Jindo-Gun in Jennam-Do, Gumi-Si in Kyongsanbuk-Do, Dong-Gu in Incheon-Si, and Suwon-Si, Kyonggi-Do. Overall, the highest FRI is shown in Anyang-Si, Kyongggi-Do. The spatial distribution of the FRI was high in the southeastern coastal region and basins of the two biggest rivers in South Korea, and normalized flood frequency followed spatial patterns similar to FRIs. This study provided information on the relative flood risk index among administrative units for investment prioritization in flood risk management. In this regard, the suggested FRI is expected to significantly contribute to methodical and economic improvements in budget allocations for flood risk management.