Frequency performance distribution index for short- term system frequency reliability forecast considering renewable energy integration

Risk in a power system's ability to survive imminent disturbances without recourse to low operational cost and non-interruptive energy delivery remains the responsibility of every grid operator. Intermittencies in renewable energy and dynamic load variations influence the quality of power supply. The sudden changes affect the system frequency, compromising the reliability of the system grid; generation response to frequency regulation is momentous in such an incident. Slower response or smaller reserve capacity may cause a power shortage. This paper proposes a novel predictive scheme for a short-term operational reliability evaluation for system operations planning. The proposed method evaluates the operational reliability of system frequency whiles considering high renewable power penetration and energy storage system incorporation. Required energy generations, and other grid parameters, are modelled as stochastic inputs to the framework. We formulate a reliability index as a frequency distribution considering system frequency control dynamics and processes. The IEEE Reliability Test System (RTS) is used to prove the efficacy of the proposed model.