TY - JOUR
T1 - Improved time-varying reproduction numbers using the generation interval for COVID-19
AU - Kim, Tobhin
AU - Lee, Hyojung
AU - Kim, Sungchan
AU - Kim, Changhoon
AU - Son, Hyunjin
AU - Lee, Sunmi
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2023 Kim, Lee, Kim, Kim, Son and Lee.
PY - 2023
Y1 - 2023
N2 - Estimating key epidemiological parameters, such as incubation period, serial interval (SI), generation interval (GI) and latent period, is essential to quantify the transmissibility and effects of various interventions of COVID-19. These key parameters play a critical role in quantifying the basic reproduction number. With the hard work of epidemiological investigators in South Korea, estimating these key parameters has become possible based on infector-infectee surveillance data of COVID-19 between February 2020 and April 2021. Herein, the mean incubation period was estimated to be 4.9 days (95% CI: 4.2, 5.7) and the mean generation interval was estimated to be 4.3 days (95% CI: 4.2, 4.4). The mean serial interval was estimated to be 4.3, with a standard deviation of 4.2. It is also revealed that the proportion of presymptomatic transmission was ~57%, which indicates the potential risk of transmission before the disease onset. We compared the time-varying reproduction number based on GI and SI and found that the time-varying reproduction number based on GI may result in a larger estimation of (Formula presented.), which refers to the COVID-19 transmission potential around the rapid increase of cases. This highlights the importance of considering presymptomatic transmission and generation intervals when estimating the time-varying reproduction number.
AB - Estimating key epidemiological parameters, such as incubation period, serial interval (SI), generation interval (GI) and latent period, is essential to quantify the transmissibility and effects of various interventions of COVID-19. These key parameters play a critical role in quantifying the basic reproduction number. With the hard work of epidemiological investigators in South Korea, estimating these key parameters has become possible based on infector-infectee surveillance data of COVID-19 between February 2020 and April 2021. Herein, the mean incubation period was estimated to be 4.9 days (95% CI: 4.2, 5.7) and the mean generation interval was estimated to be 4.3 days (95% CI: 4.2, 4.4). The mean serial interval was estimated to be 4.3, with a standard deviation of 4.2. It is also revealed that the proportion of presymptomatic transmission was ~57%, which indicates the potential risk of transmission before the disease onset. We compared the time-varying reproduction number based on GI and SI and found that the time-varying reproduction number based on GI may result in a larger estimation of (Formula presented.), which refers to the COVID-19 transmission potential around the rapid increase of cases. This highlights the importance of considering presymptomatic transmission and generation intervals when estimating the time-varying reproduction number.
KW - COVID-19
KW - generation interval
KW - incubation period
KW - latent period
KW - presymptomatic transmission
KW - serial interval
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85164865072&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1185854
DO - 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1185854
M3 - Article
C2 - 37457248
AN - SCOPUS:85164865072
SN - 2296-2565
VL - 11
JO - Frontiers in Public Health
JF - Frontiers in Public Health
M1 - 1185854
ER -