TY - GEN
T1 - Objectivity based Self-Evolving Agent Model Validation for Social Issue Simulation
AU - Jung, Joonyoung
AU - Bae, Jang Won
AU - Lee, Chunhee
AU - Kang, Dong Oh
AU - Paik, Euihyun
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2018 IEEE.
PY - 2018/11/16
Y1 - 2018/11/16
N2 - In this paper, objectivity based self-evolving agent model validation is presented for house market simulation. The self-evolving simulation updates agent models using verification data. However, because there is no verification data for the future, it is difficult to predict the future with self-evolving module accurately. Therefore, even if simulation is performed using a self-evolving mechanism, validation of the agent model is still important in order to obtain correct prediction results for the future. Verification of objectivity is carried out in the procedure of comparing the simulation prediction value with the past actual data, and it is judged that the result of the simulation is valid if it shows a form similar to the past actual data. The error rate and correlation between the verification data and simulation results are calculated through the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and coefficient of determination. The accuracy of the simulation results for the apartment price index and 2-year-lease index are approximately 95% and 89%, respectively, and coefficient of determination are 0.507 and 0.753, respectively. Therefore, self-evolving agent based model designed for house market simulation can be said to have objectivity.
AB - In this paper, objectivity based self-evolving agent model validation is presented for house market simulation. The self-evolving simulation updates agent models using verification data. However, because there is no verification data for the future, it is difficult to predict the future with self-evolving module accurately. Therefore, even if simulation is performed using a self-evolving mechanism, validation of the agent model is still important in order to obtain correct prediction results for the future. Verification of objectivity is carried out in the procedure of comparing the simulation prediction value with the past actual data, and it is judged that the result of the simulation is valid if it shows a form similar to the past actual data. The error rate and correlation between the verification data and simulation results are calculated through the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and coefficient of determination. The accuracy of the simulation results for the apartment price index and 2-year-lease index are approximately 95% and 89%, respectively, and coefficient of determination are 0.507 and 0.753, respectively. Therefore, self-evolving agent based model designed for house market simulation can be said to have objectivity.
KW - agent simulation
KW - model validation
KW - objectivity of validation
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85059450502&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1109/ICTC.2018.8539712
DO - 10.1109/ICTC.2018.8539712
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:85059450502
T3 - 9th International Conference on Information and Communication Technology Convergence: ICT Convergence Powered by Smart Intelligence, ICTC 2018
SP - 1417
EP - 1419
BT - 9th International Conference on Information and Communication Technology Convergence
PB - Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
T2 - 9th International Conference on Information and Communication Technology Convergence, ICTC 2018
Y2 - 17 October 2018 through 19 October 2018
ER -