Prediction of changes in distribution area of scopura laminate in response to climate changes of the odaesan National park of South Korea

This study was performed to provide important basic data for the preservation and management of Scopura laminata, a species endemic to Korea, by elucidating the spatial characteristics of its present, potential, and future distribution areas. Currently, this species is found in the Odaesan National Park area of South Korea and has been known to be restricted in its habitat due to its poor mobility, as even fully grown insects do not have wings. Utilizing the MaxEnt model, 20 collection points around Odaesan National Park were assessed to analyze and predict spatial distribution characteristics. The precision of the MaxEnt model was excellent, with an AUC value of 0.833. Variables affecting the potential distribution area of S. laminata by more than 10% included the range of annual temperature, seasonality of precipitation, and precipitation of the driest quarter, in order of greatest to least impact. Compared to the current potential distribution area, no significant difference in the overall habitable area was predicted for the 2050s or 2070s. It was, however, demonstrated that the potential habitable area would be reduced in the 2050s by up to 270.3 km from the current area of 403.9 km; further, no potential habitable area was anticipated by the 2070s according to our predictive model. Taken together, it is anticipated that this endemic species could be significantly affected by climate changes, and hence effective countermeasures are strongly warranted for the preservation of habitats and species management.