Prognostic value of serum growth differentiation factor-15 in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbation

Background: Information regarding prognostic value of growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) and heart-type fatty acid-binding protein (H-FABP) in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbation is limited. The aim of this study was to investigate whether serum levels of GDP-15 and H-PABP predict an adverse outcome for COPD exacerbation. Methods: Clinical variables, including serum GDP-15 and H-FABP levels were compared in prospectively enrolled patients with COPD exacerbation that did or did not experience an adverse outcome. An adverse outcome included 30-day mortality and need for endotracheal intubation or inotropic support. Results: Ninety-seven patients were included and allocated into an adverse outcome (n=10) or a control (n=87) group. Frequencies of mental change and PaCO₂>37 mm Hg were significantly higher in the adverse outcome group (mental change: 30% vs. 6%, p=0.034 and PaCO₂>37 mm Hg: 80% vs. 22%, p<0.001, respectively). Serum GDF-15 elevation (>1,600 pg/mL) was more common in the adverse outcome group (80% vs. 43%, p=0.041). However, serum H-FABP level and frequency of serum H-FABP elevation (>755 pg/mL) did not differ between the two groups. Multivariate analysis showed that an elevated serum GDF-15 and PaCO₂>37 mm Hg were significant predictors of an adverse outcome (odds ratio [OR], 25.8; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.7-243.8; p=0.005 and OR, 11.8; 95% CI, 1.2-115.3; p=0.034, respectively). Conclusion: Elevated serum GDF-15 level and PaCO₂>37 mm Hg were found to predict an adverse outcome independently in patients with COPD exacerbation, suggesting the possibility that serum GDF-15 could be used as a prognostic biomarker of COPD exacerbation.