Sea surface temperature warming to inhibit mitigation of tropical cyclone destructiveness over East Asia in El Niño

Doo Sun R. Park, Eunkyo Seo, Minkyu Lee, Dong Hyun Cha, Dasol Kim, Chang Hoi Ho, Myong In Lee, Hyeong Seog Kim, Seung Ki Min

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Given their conditions to reside in and intensify longer over warm oceans, tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP) present a stronger lifetime maximum intensity during El Niño than during La Niña. By using observational data, we found that the anomalously cool sea surface temperature (SST)s in the basin act as effective barriers against intense TCs approaching East Asia during El Niño, weakening their destructiveness at landfall. Based on our high-resolution pseudo-global-warming simulations, the basin-wide 2K SST warming within the WNP basin can, however, shatter this cool SST barrier, exposing East Asia to more destructive TCs during El Niño, compared to those during La Niña. Considering that the 2K warmer WNP will likely occur in the mid-21st century under a high emission scenario and in the late 21st century under a moderate emission scenario, our findings support that more aggressive efforts of global warming mitigation are needed.

Original languageEnglish
Article number24
Journalnpj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Volume7
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 2024

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