Spatially explicit model applied to pine wilt disease dispersal based on host plant infestation

Tuyen Van Nguyen, Young Seuk Park, Chang Sik Jeoung, Won Il Choi, Yong Kuk Kim, Il Hyo Jung, Nanako Shigesada, Kohkichi Kawasaki, Fugo Takasu, Tae Soo Chon

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

21 Scopus citations

Abstract

Pine wilt disease is a serious pest for pine trees in many countries, especially in Asia (e.g., South Korea, Japan, China and Taiwan). In this study, we characterised dispersal patterns (e.g., direction and area) of pine wilt disease in the southern part of Korea in four-year period based on the cross-correlation function. The most likely distance of the highest infestation probability after one year is around 1.2 km from the disease source according to the distribution of pairwise distance. Subsequently, a spatially explicit model was developed in two dimensions by incorporating biological and environmental events, including influence of infested neighbourhoods, short- and long-distance dispersal, asymptomatic carriers and typhoon. The model results were in good agreement with field data when evaluated using the receiver operating characteristics and pair-correlation functions. Asymptomatic carrier played an important role in the spread of PWD. The infestation probabilities based on the spatially explicit model provided the map of spatial conformations that would be effective in addressing disease occurrence in both local and global aspects.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)54-62
Number of pages9
JournalEcological Modelling
Volume353
DOIs
StatePublished - 10 Jun 2017

Keywords

  • Asymptomatic carrier
  • Cross-correlation function
  • Forest pest management
  • Pair-correlation function
  • Pine wilt disease
  • Receiver operating characteristics
  • Spatially explicit model

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Spatially explicit model applied to pine wilt disease dispersal based on host plant infestation'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this