TY - JOUR
T1 - Spatially explicit model applied to pine wilt disease dispersal based on host plant infestation
AU - Nguyen, Tuyen Van
AU - Park, Young Seuk
AU - Jeoung, Chang Sik
AU - Choi, Won Il
AU - Kim, Yong Kuk
AU - Jung, Il Hyo
AU - Shigesada, Nanako
AU - Kawasaki, Kohkichi
AU - Takasu, Fugo
AU - Chon, Tae Soo
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2016 Elsevier B.V.
PY - 2017/6/10
Y1 - 2017/6/10
N2 - Pine wilt disease is a serious pest for pine trees in many countries, especially in Asia (e.g., South Korea, Japan, China and Taiwan). In this study, we characterised dispersal patterns (e.g., direction and area) of pine wilt disease in the southern part of Korea in four-year period based on the cross-correlation function. The most likely distance of the highest infestation probability after one year is around 1.2 km from the disease source according to the distribution of pairwise distance. Subsequently, a spatially explicit model was developed in two dimensions by incorporating biological and environmental events, including influence of infested neighbourhoods, short- and long-distance dispersal, asymptomatic carriers and typhoon. The model results were in good agreement with field data when evaluated using the receiver operating characteristics and pair-correlation functions. Asymptomatic carrier played an important role in the spread of PWD. The infestation probabilities based on the spatially explicit model provided the map of spatial conformations that would be effective in addressing disease occurrence in both local and global aspects.
AB - Pine wilt disease is a serious pest for pine trees in many countries, especially in Asia (e.g., South Korea, Japan, China and Taiwan). In this study, we characterised dispersal patterns (e.g., direction and area) of pine wilt disease in the southern part of Korea in four-year period based on the cross-correlation function. The most likely distance of the highest infestation probability after one year is around 1.2 km from the disease source according to the distribution of pairwise distance. Subsequently, a spatially explicit model was developed in two dimensions by incorporating biological and environmental events, including influence of infested neighbourhoods, short- and long-distance dispersal, asymptomatic carriers and typhoon. The model results were in good agreement with field data when evaluated using the receiver operating characteristics and pair-correlation functions. Asymptomatic carrier played an important role in the spread of PWD. The infestation probabilities based on the spatially explicit model provided the map of spatial conformations that would be effective in addressing disease occurrence in both local and global aspects.
KW - Asymptomatic carrier
KW - Cross-correlation function
KW - Forest pest management
KW - Pair-correlation function
KW - Pine wilt disease
KW - Receiver operating characteristics
KW - Spatially explicit model
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85007228150&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.10.022
DO - 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.10.022
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85007228150
SN - 0304-3800
VL - 353
SP - 54
EP - 62
JO - Ecological Modelling
JF - Ecological Modelling
ER -