Superiority of Simplified Acute Physiologic Score II Compared with Acute Physiologic and Chronic Health Evaluation II and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Scores for Predicting 48-Hour Mortality in Patients Receiving Continuous Kidney Replacement Therapy

Background: Predicting early mortality is important in patients undergoing continuous kidney replacement therapy (CKRT), especially in the first 48 h. This study aimed to determine the predictive performance of the Simplified Acute Physiologic Score (SAPS) II, the Acute Physiologic and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, and the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores for early mortality in patients receiving CKRT. Methods: Data from patients with acute kidney injury receiving CKRT were consecutively and retrospectively obtained at a tertiary medical center between August 2017 and March 2021. The outcomes included 48-h and 7-day mortality. The scoring systems were evaluated via discrimination at the time of CKRT initiation (using area under the receiver operating characteristics curve [AUROC]) and calibration (via Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit C statistics). Results: Among eligible 652 patients, 95 (14.6%) and 212 (32.5%) died within 48 h and within 7 days, respectively. The AUROC for SAPS II (0.71, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.65-0.77, p = 0.016 vs. APACHE II score, p = 0.044 vs. SOFA score) was significantly higher than that of the APACHE II (0.66, 95% CI: 0.60-0.72) and SOFA scores (0.66, 95% CI: 0.60-0.72) for 48-h mortality. However, no significant differences in the AUROCs for SAPS II, APACHE II, and SOFA scores for 7-day mortality were observed. The calibration of the SAPS II for 48-h and 7-day mortality was adequate (p = 0.507 and p = 0.141, respectively). Conclusions: The predictive performance of SAPS II for mortality within the first 48 h was superior to that of the APACHE II and SOFA scores in patients with acute kidney injury receiving CKRT.